AdaptRisk

Climate Adaptation of infrastructure systems

Infrastructure typically has a life time of decades, if not centuries. Predictions of extreme weather event frequency, of climate change impact etc. on the other hand are often changing as they are subject to considerable uncertainty. Correspondingly, it may be sensible to prefer flexible infrastructure that can be adjusted in the future when new evidence arises and the requirements change.

It is the aim of this project to develop a methodological framework of decision making under uncertainty that allows taking into account the flexibility of the infrastructure. In contrast to previous projects, the analysis is performed fully quantitatively, based on rigorous mathematical modelling of the uncertainties and Bayesian decision analysis for assessing the optimality of the infrastructure design.

Our main application field is in planning of flood protection measures under uncertainty introduced by climate change and under statistical uncertainty due to limited data. The cooperation of Engineering Risk Analysis (ERA) Group and the Chair of Hydrology and River Basin Management allows implementing the advanced decision models (developed by ERA) to real world flood protection systems (proposed by the hydrologists). Our main case study area is the city of Rosenheim.

While many of the aspects of our work lie in basic research, we strive to make our findings applicable. We are cooperating with the Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt and other partners on utilization of the framework in practice.

The project is funded by International Graduate School of Science and Technology (IGSSE).

For more information and list of publications see: http://www.era.bgu.tum.de/research/adaptrisk/