Uncertainty on future climate scenarios leads to increased uncertainty in the planning of flood protection, water resources and related measures.

Water infrastructure, such as flood protection measures, typically has life time of decades, if not centuries. Climate projections on the other hand are constantly changing as they are subject to considerable uncertainty. Correspondingly, it is sensible to prefer adaptive infrastructure in the decision making process as the requirements are likely to change as new evidence arises. 

It is the aim of this project to develop a methodological framework of decision making under uncertainty that allows taking into account the adaptability of the infrastructure. In contrast to previous projects, the analysis is performed fully quantitatively, based on rigorous mathematical modeling of the uncertainties and Bayesian decision analysis for assessing the optimality of risk mitigation strategies. In particular, we are looking at uncertainty introduced by climate change and its implication for planning of flood protection measures. 

While many of the aspects of our work lie in basic research, we strive to make our findings applicable. We are cooperating with the chair of hydrology as well as with the Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt and other partners on the implementation of the framework to real case studies.

Internal response: B. Dittes, O. Spackova, D. Straub (TUM)
Link: www.era.bgu.tum.de/index.php